The Next 10 Years and the Nasdaq

The Circular March of Ants

There is an interesting case of inefficiency caused by imitation: army ants. The blind worker ants follow the ant directly in front of them, and when the number of worker ants increases past a critical point, a so-called circular mil occurs, making the ants circle until they die.

The Extinction of the Rocky Mountain Locust

The Rocky Mountain locust terrorized the American continent in the 19th century. From 1873 to 1877, it caused unprecedented swarms and devastated farmland, inflicting more than $200 million in damage (approximately $5.78 billion in today's value, 15–20% of U.S. GDP at the time). Despite their enormous numbers, they suddenly went extinct in the early 20th century, and the last living specimen was collected in 1902.

The grasshopper glacier in the Rocky Mountains contains layers of grasshopper carcasses presumed to be Rocky Mountain locusts. These layers show how enormous their numbers were. Analysis of why so many grasshopper carcasses lie in front of a particular glacier supports the hypothesis that a leading swarm led them in the wrong direction, and after being trapped in the Rockies, they all froze to death in a cold storm.

COVID-19 Vaccination

These behaviors can be positive, but on the other hand, they can also lead to disastrous results. Now that COVID-19 is over, I'm not sure whether getting vaccinated was the right thing.

But even at the height of COVID-19, what mattered was showing a high vaccination rate, and those who did not get the shot were treated as selfish people. Many people are still suffering from aftereffects due to adverse reactions to the vaccination. What if the COVID-19 vaccine had greater side effects than we thought? Could we too have fallen into the group's circular mil? I don't want to view this issue politically. Whichever party it was, they would have acted the same way.

Karl Popper's Open Society

Karl Popper criticized totalitarianism through his theory of Open Society Theory. He also warned that when goals are clear and unchanging in this way, the pursuit of those goals becomes radical and blind, and people who disagree with the goals or are harmed in the process of achieving them can be excluded, or in the worst case, purged. Therefore, he argued that society must be changed gradually while constantly reviewing its goals through continuous rational dialogue and debate. A society in which this is possible is an open society.

Nietzsche said, "God is dead." Only by breaking down what we call truth can we move to a new dimension.

Devil's Advocate

In the movie World War Z, only Israel had made preparations for the zombie outbreak. The reason was the Mossad's Devil's Advocate. In the movie, Mossad has ten intelligence analysts who render the final judgment, and if all ten reach the same conclusion, one person is required to play the role of devil's advocate, finding evidence to the contrary.

At Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger is famous for playing the role of devil's advocate.

HODL Room

Korea has a culture called the 'HODL room.' It is where people who are stuck in an investment or have suffered losses gather. There, bragging about one's losses becomes disaster porn. For Koreans, this HODL room plays an important role in holding on mentally. In a HODL room, mentioning bad news invites criticism. You are only allowed to hear good news. Unable to admit that your investment was wrong and turn back, you must have your rightness confirmed by people who encourage you about how correctly you invested.