JPMorgan's Tale of the Sheep
During COVID there was a famous bull at JPMorgan. Marko Kolanovic was JPMorgan's chief global market strategist. Every time he gave a view, the press splashed it across the headlines as if it spoke for JPMorgan itself. What made him famous was the COVID-19 crisis.
2021, the COVID Period
In early 2021, when everyone was in excessive fear of COVID variants such as Omicron, he consistently said it was a buying opportunity on the dip.
First, Kolanovic said that "in a long-term historical context, positioning in equities is still low" and forecast that "positioning will increase going forward." Next he stressed that "we expect the COVID-19 pandemic to subside rapidly on the back of vaccines and a growing immune population." Finally, he forecast that "as monetary and fiscal stimulus takes hold, it will boost consumption, world trade, and demand for goods, and support high inflation."
February 2, 2021 - Yonhap Infomax
Then, when the Evergrande crisis broke out of China in the autumn of that year, he said his basic stance was unchanged and that this heavy selloff was a buying opportunity on the dip. And his analysis proved right.
At the end of 2021 he was still a bull. His reason was that earnings growth was solid.
2022, the Crash
Then the down market began in 2022. But his bullishness did not break.
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's top analyst and a byword for bullishness, said in a note to clients that day that "we have found three big reasons the market should be optimistic" and that "the selloff in the market will not get worse than this."
Kolanovic said that "more hawkish central bank pricing and the resulting rise in real yields are weighing on risk assets," but added that "even allowing for the possibility that earnings may bottom out, we believe all of the downside will be limited." He also explained that "positioning among retail and institutional investors is very low, and long-term inflation expectations are declining in both survey-based and market-based measures."
September 20, 2022 - The Korea Economic Daily
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's top analyst and a byword for bullishness, said the stock market was close to a bottom and forecast a rebound. He went on to analyze that "signs of easing inflation are coming through, and the fact that investor sentiment is deeply depressed shows that the market is at a bottom right now."
October 3, 2022 - The Korea Economic Daily
According to Bloomberg on the 31st of last month, local time, Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global market strategist, and others forecast that "if our prediction is right, the most synchronized and aggressive global rate-hiking cycle in 40 years will end early next year."
November 2, 2022 - Yonhap News
The down market continued to the end of 2022, and at the end of 2022 Kolanovic's view suddenly began to change.
In an investment memo sent to clients, he predicted that "the blow from the Fed's tightening is coming" and that "along with falling corporate earnings, there is a strong chance the New York market will test new lows through the first quarter of next year." Having urged clients to buy the dip until now, he said "as late as the end of summer I kept expecting resilience in the US economy and the stock market" and that "I have now abandoned the positive view." He also said "the crisis in the crypto market is not over yet" and predicted that "crypto will also have a negative effect on sentiment in the stock market."
December 1, 2022 - The Korea Economic Daily
But this view was completely wrong. In fact December 2022 to early January 2023 was the bottom of the market, and the absolute low in the crypto market was in November. Still, the shock to the market at the time was enormous. After all, even Kolanovic, famous as the standard-bearer of the bulls, was talking about a bear market.
2023, the Recovery
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief market strategist and Wall Street's best-known bull, said he was "completely negative on the stock market." He explained that "when you look at indicators such as regional surveys, they are all trending down." Kolanovic asked, "what would it take to turn things up?" and said "it looks difficult unless the US Federal Reserve cuts rates."
January 26, 2023 - SBS Biz
From then on he stayed a bear.
Strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the odds had risen of a 'Minsky Moment', which marks the start of a new financial crisis in which a market built on enormous debt collapses. At the end of 2022 he had expected the S&P 500, the flagship index of the New York market, at the 4,800 level, 25% above the actual figure. Kolanovic has since lowered his forecast. His S&P 500 target for this year is 4,200, 6.3% above that day's close.
March 21, 2023 - Financial News
Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist and co-head of global research at JPMorgan Chase, said on US broadcaster CNBC on the 5th, local time, that he was preparing for the possibility of a 20% plunge in the S&P 500.
October 6, 2023 - SBS Biz
Marko Kolanovic, strategist at the investment bank JPMorgan, argued that last week's rally in the New York stock market would largely fizzle out. The S&P 500 in New York jumped 6% last week, its biggest weekly gain of the year.
November 7, 2023
2024, and the Ending
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and Wall Street's biggest 'bear', who has consistently argued that US stocks would fall last year and this year, is reportedly leaving the firm at last. He had stuck to his view and market strategy that the S&P 500 would end this year at 4,200 points.
July 3, 2024
The man who went from Wall Street's most famous bull to its most famous bear finally left JPMorgan. Every time he talked about weakness in the market, the Korean press splashed it across the headlines as JPMorgan's position. But his market predictions missed disastrously.
There are four animals on Wall Street. Bulls make money and bears make money, but pigs and sheep get slaughtered
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