Is It Meaningful to Watch the Macro?
Now everyone is watching the tariff issue. It wasn't an issue that got much attention before. The market meta has changed. Let's go back a little further.
Until very recently, Consumer Price Index was a very important issue for everyone. Korea Economic TV broadcast the FOMC with simultaneous interpretation.
Finhub is a site that provides financial API information. In particular, you can see the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases here.
You can also check the yield curve, which shows the Long-Short Term Interest Rate Spread that has been drawing attention again these days.
There is also an FDA schedule. There was a time when everyone was focused only on new drugs.
Interestingly, there was also an API for viewing CDS premiums by country. Come to think of it, just over ten years ago, there was the Southern European fiscal crisis.
It was a time when everyone was watching the CDS premium.
Consumer Price Index, CDS premium, Long-Short Term Interest Rate Spread, coronavirus case counts, and FDA new drug information — were all of these really meaningful to us? Looking back, weren't they all just information that clouded our view?
I wonder whether analyzing the macro while analyzing all this information is really meaningful. Behind everything, there are companies. The most important thing is to study the history of individual companies and derive investment conclusions from them.
Let's stop wasting so much time on the macro.
I only spend 15 minutes a year predicting the economy and the stock market. - Peter Lynch
I don't know when the stock market will hit bottom and rebound - Buffett
No one can predict the market. People think they are smart enough to buy stocks at the best price. No one makes good investments every day. I have never met such a person. - Warren Buffett
In my opinion, ordinary investors should not bet on timing. Because you'll be wrong. It's timing. Don't do it. We (Bridgewater) have 1,600 employees spending hundreds of millions of dollars each year trying to time the market, and it's still difficult. - Ray Dalio
We are agnostic about macroeconomic variables. - Charlie Munger
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