Only the notes that have matured in my Obsidian vault are moved here. Mostly markets, macroeconomics and corporate finance, occasionally development and note-taking.
Ace Bed is a premium bed brand focused on the domestic market, with a very stable financial structure and debt-free management, maintaining a high dividend yield (5.71%). ROE is decent, but capital efficiency is low due to excessive cash holdings. The owner family's stake exceeds 80%, and maintaining the listing appears to be largely for management succession. Short-term surges are difficult, but long-term investment appeal still exists.
'High-dividend' stocks are not always a good choice. A high dividend payout ratio means lower long-term growth, and receiving dividends every year eliminates the tax deferral effect. Caution is needed because the dividend may not be sustainable or the company may have low growth potential.
Trump has packaged himself as a successful businessman, but in reality he has experienced six bankruptcies, and most of his assets were inherited from his father. He repeatedly faced crises through excessive leverage and reckless investments, and in 2024 faced yet another crisis due to inflating his assets.
In 2023, Daeyang Metal acquired Youngpoong Paper with virtually no capital, and afterward Youngpoong Paper announced its entry into secondary batteries, sending its stock price soaring. However, excessive valuation relative to earnings and suspicions of stock manipulation emerged, and after the investigation the stock crashed. The damage was passed on to retail investors and securities firms.
Kumyang, a foaming agent maker, drew attention by announcing a move into the secondary battery business, but controversy grew over mine acquisitions with nothing behind them, sloppy disclosures, accounting problems, and MOU announcements that looked designed to prop up the share price. It is a case that ended in delisting.
After the founder of Bugs Music gave up management control, Glowicks induced a surge in its stock price through a study-abroad business and a disclosure of acquiring a gold mine amid the resources diplomacy boom, but the CEO received a six-year prison sentence for spreading false information and large-scale embezzlement. It remains a representative case of stock price manipulation.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest grew thanks to Bill Hwang's early investment, but it exposed the problems of active fund management. From 2020, it bought Baidu in large quantities, focusing on its potential as an AI autonomous driving company, but switched to selling after the stock price fell and Bill Hwang's margin call crisis occurred. Buying at the peak and selling during a crisis raises questions about the transparency of fund management and lowers trust in active funds.
Macroeconomic indicators and meta change with the times, but this raises the question of whether investing excessive time and resources in analyzing them is truly meaningful. CPI, CDS premiums, long-short term interest rate spreads, COVID-19 case counts, and various other indicators have drawn attention, but in hindsight they are only short-term distractions. What matters is understanding the history and essence of individual companies, and investment conclusions should be derived from company analysis.
The US accounting standard GAAP reflects all costs thoroughly, so performance fluctuates greatly. To compensate, NON-GAAP metrics that exclude one-time costs were created, and EBITDA is also used based on this. However, Charlie Munger strongly criticized the abuse of such adjusted earnings.
Peter Lynch-style value investing was possible in an era of little information asymmetry, but the sophistication of finance and the rise of private equity have made it steadily harder. As companies are taken private and restructured, genuinely undervalued stocks have grown scarce, and a low PBR alone is no longer reason enough to buy.