Only the notes that have matured in my Obsidian vault are moved here. Mostly markets, macroeconomics and corporate finance, occasionally development and note-taking.
The VIX index reflects market anxiety, but it has little correlation with future stock returns. Rather, times when the VIX spiked have often been good long-term buying opportunities. Ultimately, the VIX is just a passing signal, not a trend.
The KOSPI is particularly vulnerable to U.S. interest rate hikes and a global economic slowdown due to its large share of export-driven large caps such as semiconductors and its B2B-centered industrial structure. It is structured so that the G20 leading economic index has a greater impact than domestic demand.
The recent KOSPI plunge has sparked fear, but what matters is how cheap it is relative to fair value. The PER is not low, but the market is near a cyclical low. Compared by MSCI index, Korea is more undervalued than China or Hong Kong, and the semiconductor-driven Korean market is likely to benefit from the next AI cycle.
From the birth of Bitcoin in 2008 to 2022, the history of crypto has been a cycle of boom and bust: the rise of exchanges, hacks and regulation, the growth of ICOs and DeFi, and the leverage expansion that led to the collapse of FTX.
During the 2008 oil shock, peak oil theories and forecasts of 200 dollar crude poured out, but in reality the subprime crisis and the shale revolution sent prices crashing. Goldman Sachs collected fee income on exaggerated forecasts, and the market was left with a lesson in overheated fear and failed prediction. Wall Street forecasts always deserve a critical eye.
Warren Buffett criticized stock options for eroding shareholder value and creating a flawed compensation system, and believed cash compensation was better. On the other hand, Peter Thiel considered stock options effective in the early stages of tech stocks.
Marketplaces focus on intermediation and payments, platforms on content production and network effects, and aggregators on collecting and comparing information. Each model differs in service structure, revenue model, and scope of quality responsibility.
Unity is suffering from poor performance due to excessive mergers and acquisitions and a worsening macroeconomic environment, but is evaluated as a company with turnaround potential based on its mobile-centric strengths and dominant position in the game engine market.
Just as the industrial capitalists of the 20th century replaced the power of the aristocracy, in the 21st century the nerds of Silicon Valley have risen as the new power. IT creates enormous wealth with only a handful of people and is shaking the existing industrial structure.
The key to the KDI exchange rate problem is the exporter's timing of currency exchange. When U.S. interest rates are high, holding dollars is advantageous, and when Korea raises rates, exchanging becomes advantageous. To prevent exchange losses, currency hedging can be used in the NDF market.