Only the notes that have matured in my Obsidian vault are moved here. Mostly markets, macroeconomics and corporate finance, occasionally development and note-taking.
Peter Lynch-style value investing was possible in an era of little information asymmetry, but the sophistication of finance and the rise of private equity have made it steadily harder. As companies are taken private and restructured, genuinely undervalued stocks have grown scarce, and a low PBR alone is no longer reason enough to buy.
Henry Ford drove innovation in industry and logistics by introducing mass production of automobiles and the assembly line. His inventions became the foundation of modern capitalism and production, yet political and social controversy has often left him underrated.
The US accounting standard GAAP reflects all costs thoroughly, so performance fluctuates greatly. To compensate, NON-GAAP metrics that exclude one-time costs were created, and EBITDA is also used based on this. However, Charlie Munger strongly criticized the abuse of such adjusted earnings.
In every era, the market produces terms that group certain large-cap stocks together. From the Nifty Fifty to TGIF, MAGA, FANNG, M7, and E8, the names keep changing, but the common thread is excessive concentration in a few large caps and the caution that goes with it. In this recurring history, investors need to watch the pattern closely.
The VIX index reflects market anxiety, but it has little correlation with future stock returns. Rather, times when the VIX spiked have often been good long-term buying opportunities. Ultimately, the VIX is just a passing signal, not a trend.
The KOSPI is particularly vulnerable to U.S. interest rate hikes and a global economic slowdown due to its large share of export-driven large caps such as semiconductors and its B2B-centered industrial structure. It is structured so that the G20 leading economic index has a greater impact than domestic demand.
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's star strategist, built his reputation as a bull during the COVID period, but after turning bearish and missing call after call he lost credibility and finally left the firm in 2024. On Wall Street bulls and bears survive, but an investor who loses direction gets culled.
The recent KOSPI plunge has sparked fear, but what matters is how cheap it is relative to fair value. The PER is not low, but the market is near a cyclical low. Compared by MSCI index, Korea is more undervalued than China or Hong Kong, and the semiconductor-driven Korean market is likely to benefit from the next AI cycle.
KG Inicis, a PG company undervalued at a PER of 3.6, remains unnoticed by the market despite its steady growth potential and economic moat. The reason is that Korea discount factors are evident, including the KG Group's complex governance structure, octopus-style expansion, and large debt guarantees.
From the birth of Bitcoin in 2008 to 2022, the history of crypto has been a cycle of boom and bust: the rise of exchanges, hacks and regulation, the growth of ICOs and DeFi, and the leverage expansion that led to the collapse of FTX.