Only the notes that have matured in my Obsidian vault are moved here. Mostly markets, macroeconomics and corporate finance, occasionally development and note-taking.
During the 2008 oil shock, peak oil theories and forecasts of 200 dollar crude poured out, but in reality the subprime crisis and the shale revolution sent prices crashing. Goldman Sachs collected fee income on exaggerated forecasts, and the market was left with a lesson in overheated fear and failed prediction. Wall Street forecasts always deserve a critical eye.
Warren Buffett criticized stock options for eroding shareholder value and creating a flawed compensation system, and believed cash compensation was better. On the other hand, Peter Thiel considered stock options effective in the early stages of tech stocks.
Marketplaces focus on intermediation and payments, platforms on content production and network effects, and aggregators on collecting and comparing information. Each model differs in service structure, revenue model, and scope of quality responsibility.
Unity is suffering from poor performance due to excessive mergers and acquisitions and a worsening macroeconomic environment, but is evaluated as a company with turnaround potential based on its mobile-centric strengths and dominant position in the game engine market.
The key to the KDI exchange rate problem is the exporter's timing of currency exchange. When U.S. interest rates are high, holding dollars is advantageous, and when Korea raises rates, exchanging becomes advantageous. To prevent exchange losses, currency hedging can be used in the NDF market.
Just as the industrial capitalists of the 20th century replaced the power of the aristocracy, in the 21st century the nerds of Silicon Valley have risen as the new power. IT creates enormous wealth with only a handful of people and is shaking the existing industrial structure.
After it burst like a black swan, everyone criticizes FTX as a Ponzi company that was doomed from the start. Was FTX really a Ponzi company that had no choice but to collapse?
Like smartphones, the era is coming when the operating system becomes the deciding factor for buying a car. In the past, performance mattered, but now software-centric vehicles such as Tesla and Mercedes-Benz are in the spotlight.
Within a group, uniform opinions and actions can sometimes produce efficiency, but blind conformity driven by crowd psychology can lead to disastrous results. Diverse perspectives and critical thinking keep a group healthy.
Korea's US stock daytime trading has grown rapidly since Samsung Securities' exclusive introduction, with trading volume increasing 30-fold. Global partnerships with Robinhood, Jane Street, and others are also expanding, and a 24-hour STO-based exchange is scheduled to launch in the future.